A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has has something to learn from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish issue."
