Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Parliamentary Comeback
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted initiative to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to parliament. This move follows the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has triggered an upcoming by-election.
Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple figures on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have reportedly predicted it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection process. This is primarily due to the sizable presence of supporters of the Prime Minister on the body who are keen to head off any potential leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's planned resignation, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable financial cost and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage in Downing Street and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had encouraged him to run for the party leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, allies of the Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Public Approval
Amid polls indicating Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all before any possible leadership challenge.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have indicated that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
However, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are for now keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question holds a considerable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong challenge, capitalising on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.
